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What is sustainable investing? How to make money and tackle climate change

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What is sustainable investing? How to make money and tackle climate change

This year’s record-breaking heat waves, massive storms and damaging wildfires have made the dangers of climate change clearer, in a more personal way, than ever before. Roughly three-quarters of Americans now say they’ve been affected by extreme weather in the past five years, a near 20-point jump in five months, and the majority believe climate change is at least partly to blame, according to a poll last month from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Those risks have prompted a growing number of people to direct their dollars into investments that aim to tackle global warming and improve the environment—hoping to help save the planet and make some money at the same time.

Popularly known as green investing, this strategy is part of a broader trend among both market pros and consumers to consider non-financial factors along with strictly financial ones, when making decisions about money, from which funds to pick for your 401(k) to where you bank and which retail brands you buy. The investing version is commonly called ESG—the three letters refer to strategies that use environmental, social and governance (company leadership, policies and operations) criteria to help pick stocks. And in recent years the cash has been pouring in. Total assets in ESG investments now stand at around $8.4 trillion, or about 12.6 percent of all the money invested in the U.S., according to US SIF: The Sustainable Investment Forum, a nonprofit group. Put another way, one in every eight U.S. investor dollars is currently stashed in an ESG investment fund.

“People are already making consumer decisions related to sustainability by choosing brands that offer fuel-efficient cars or foods that are organically grown, and now they’re making similar decisions with their investing,” says Michael Young, director of education at US SIF.

The financial services industry has responded to growing interest from individual investors by introducing new funds and ETFs that follow sustainable investing strategies, with climate-focused offerings recently taking center stage. The total number of funds, several hundred strong, is dizzying, and so are many of the names—iShares Climate Conscious & Transition MSCI USA ETF and Xtrackers MSCI USA Climate Action Equity ETF were among the second quarter’s biggest launches—making it sometimes challenging for individuals to make sound choices.

Before you put your money into a green or sustainable fund, then, it’s crucial to dig into its details. A green label alone won’t tell you how a particular fund invests. You’ll find there are a wide array of strategies, and the managers may use a different definition of green from yours—and one that’s possibly a lot less green than you were hoping for. Investment returns vary widely as well.

“The proliferation of these products means that sometimes the onus is on the consumer to sort out the wheat from the chaff,” says Jay Lipman, co-founder and president of Ethic, an asset manager that works with investors and wealth advisors on sustainable investing. “There’s such a broad spectrum of quality that consumers almost need to become specialists in evaluating whether these products are actually doing what they say they’re doing.”

It doesn’t have to be quite that daunting, though, to find an option that suits your needs—one that combines a focus on the issues that matter most to you with a solid track record and stellar prospects, so you can rack up gains, the point of investing in the first place. Here’s what you need to do to make a great choice.

Figure Out Your Priorities

The first step in green investing is to figure out which environmental issues matter most to you, says certified financial planner Marguerita Cheng, CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth, who advises on sustainable investing. “No funds are going to check all your boxes, so it’s important to prioritize your goals,” says Cheng.

Think about which green issues stand out as your biggest concerns as well as the investment strategies that can help address them. Do you simply want to steer clear of certain types of companies, such as those that extract fossil fuels or cause pollution? Or do you want a fund that focuses on specific sustainable goals, such as carbon capture or alternative energy? Or are you most comfortable with a broad ESG fund that includes environmental issues as just one part of its overall investment strategy?

You’ll also need to consider how committed you are to green investing—that is, how much of your savings you want to devote to it—and how the funds fit into the rest of your investments and overall financial plan. Some sustainable funds hold a broad mix of stocks from a variety of industries or even bonds and cash, which can help balance your risk and returns—that is, you’ll experience fewer sharp price swings up and down, but possibly at the cost of somewhat smaller gains over time. Other funds focus on specific green goals and may hold a narrow selection of stocks. That strategy could give you more of a roller coaster ride, but one with the possibility of bigger returns (or losses) down the line, along with a more targeted way to invest in climate change solutions.

Weigh the Options

Once you have a handle on your goals, you can begin sorting through the funds available to make a suitable match. “The good news is it’s easier than ever for investors to follow a sustainable investing strategy, since there are so many funds and ETFs available, often at low cost,” says Cheng. “The bad news is that sorting through the choices can be overwhelming.”

As of mid-year, there were more than 650 sustainable investing funds and ETFs in the U.S. alone, up 11 percent from the start of the year, according to the investment research firm Morningstar. At one end of the spectrum are funds that follow a traditional broad investing strategy—they might, for example, have a mix of large U.S. companies in a variety of industries in their portfolios, along with foreign stocks and bonds—but apply an ESG filter to their picks to weed out businesses that are, say, major polluters or have a heavy carbon footprint or a record of environmental problems. At the other end of the spectrum are funds, about 100 in all, that invest more narrowly, focusing primarily on companies that support climate goals, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, or are working on developing innovative technologies in the sustainability space.

What kind of gains can you expect with sustainable investing? Broad ESG funds that hold a lot of the same high-quality stocks as traditional funds in their investment category, are likely to deliver returns that are similar to their conventional peers, says Alyssa Stankiewicz, associate director for sustainability research at Morningstar. But funds that use tighter screens to avoid certain groups of stocks may have different results. “The more sectors a fund excludes, and the larger those sectors are, the more deviation investors should expect from conventional funds,” says Stankiewicz.

Most ESG funds, in fact, made less money than their traditional counterparts last year, in part because they held fewer shares of the market’s big winners, such as energy companies Occidental Petroleum and Exxon, which produce fossil fuels. But looking back at the past three-and five-year periods, sustainable funds generally did better than conventional funds, Morningstar data shows. And the funds are looking good again lately too: The S&P 500 ESG Index has posted a total return of 13.4 percent for the year through October 20, vs. 11.5 percent for the traditional S&P 500 index.

Be Wary of Greenwashing

Another challenge for investors who want to focus on companies tackling climate change and other environmental issues is figuring out how well a fund lives up to its name and its mission. “There is a certain amount of hype or greenwashing, which can make it difficult for investors to understand how a fund really invests,” says Cheng. That’s because under SEC rules, a fund that says it will follow a particular investment strategy, such as holding small company or foreign stocks, must invest at least 80 percent of the portfolio according to that policy. But as much as 20 percent can be invested differently. (The rule does not specifically address ESG themes, such as being fossil fuel free.)

Given that wiggle room, all of the companies that a sustainable fund has in its portfolio may not be green enough for some climate-conscious investors. “If a fund says it will avoid fossil fuel producers, many investors may not be pleased if those stocks show up in the portfolio,” says Andrew Montes, director of digital strategies at As You Sow, a nonprofit shareholder advocacy group that grades ESG funds on their sustainable practices.

Consider, for example, BlackRock U.S. Carbon Transition Readiness ETF, which looks to invest in companies that will benefit from the shift to a low-carbon economy. But with the exception of Tesla, the fund’s biggest investments are in big consumer and tech companies—Apple, Amazon and MasterCard, for instance—that don’t have an obvious, direct connection to tackling climate change. (These companies are among the top 10 holdings of many ESG funds.) Moreover, 8 percent of the fund is invested in oil and gas stocks like Chevron and ConocoPhillips, which earned it a “D” in the fossil fuel category from As You Sow. The fund actually did better in other ESG categories than it did on its primary mission, getting a “B” for avoiding tobacco companies and an “A” in gender equality.

A bit more clarity on ESG fund practices is coming, as the SEC recently updated its rules on misleading or deceptive fund names. Although the 80 percent portfolio rule was not changed, it was broadened to specifically include ESG funds, which means they are now required to regularly align their portfolios to comply. The rule changes also require funds to better communicate their strategies, including using plain English meanings in their names and terminology. Funds will have two years or more to fall in line.

Dip a Toe In

One way to ease into sustainable investing is to direct a small percentage of your savings into a broadly invested sustainable stock fund rather than committing a lot of money all at once or narrowly focusing on climate-related companies from the get-go. Your best bet: an ESG index fund that holds big, established companies and tracks a benchmark of stocks that meet sustainable criteria or an actively managed fund that makes its own stock picks but follows a similar strategy.

“These core funds tend to be among the first-generation of ESG funds, and you may already have one in your 401(k) plan,” says Gordon Achtermann, a certified financial planner in Fairfax, Virginia, who advises on sustainable investing. Another advantage to this approach: These funds typically have low management fees, so those charges won’t eat into your potential gains.

The strategy for many of these core funds is to exclude several categories of stocks based on different ESG concerns, including climate-focused issues like fossil fuels and deforestation, as well as other industries many socially conscious investors want to avoid, like military weapons and tobacco. Some funds may track a broad ESG index—a basket of stocks designed to mirror the performance of companies that score high marks on environmental and social criteria. One such fund that may be found in 401(k) plans is the Vanguard FTSE Social Index Fund, which mirrors a benchmark called the FTSE4Good US Select, and charges a slim management fee of 0.14 percent—just $1.40 for every $1,000 you put in.

You are less likely to find a fund that specifically targets climate goals, such as low carbon emissions, on your 401(k) menu. But many plans offer a brokerage window through which you can invest in funds outside your plan. Or you can invest in green funds or stocks on your own via an individual account at most fund companies and brokerage firms.

Go Greener If You’re Ready

If you want to make a stronger commitment to green investing, you can opt for funds that use stricter definitions of sustainability. But those definitions vary a lot among funds, as do the indexes they may follow, says Montes. To get a clear picture of the fund’s strategy, look at the stocks it owns to see if the practices align with your idea of green investing—and stay alert for changes. (You can find that information on the company’s website or by looking up the fund’s summary and top holdings at Morningstar.com.)

Take Parnassus Core Equity, which scores top grades for sustainability, according to Morningstar. Recently the fund announced it was no longer avoiding nuclear energy, which the team now views as an essential source of fuel that can help the transition to renewable energy. “We won’t rule it out, since nuclear energy has built a good safety record over the years,” says Parnassus chief investment officer Todd Ahlsten. Still, the fund does not currently hold nuclear energy stocks, and its top holdings lean toward blue-chip companies, such as Microsoft, Alphabet and MasterCard, which have low carbon footprints. The fund has returned an average of 10.5 percent annually for the five years ended October 20.

If you want to lean even further into sustainability, you can add funds that focus on impact investing, a strategy that aims to make progress toward specific goals. Fidelity Water Sustainability Fund, which seeks to preserve clean drinking water, has stakes in Pentair, a water treatment company, and Tetra Tech, an engineering company that provides water-related services. For those interested in aiding the development of fuel cell technology, you have options such as Global X Hydrogen ETF, with its top stake in fuel cell maker Bloom Energy. To minimize risk, however, most impact investors would do best to commit no more than 15 percent of their portfolio to narrowly focused green funds, says Achtermann.

Whatever green investing strategy you prefer, by choosing funds that fit your goals, you can not only earn solid returns but also invest in ways that align with your values. Says Cliff Feigenbaum, founder and publisher of environmental website GreenMoney.com, “Sustainable investing in responsible companies just makes sense, and it helps to build a world we want to live in.”

Hurricane Tammy "craziest" spaghetti models show US states it could hit

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Hurricane Tammy "craziest" spaghetti models show US states it could hit

Hurricane Tammy may be about to veer towards the U.S., bringing heavy rain and strong winds.

Spaghetti models of the storm show that some of its potential paths include it making landfall in Florida, or alternatively in North Carolina, but that other possible paths could send it careening in the opposite direction into the Atlantic.

“This has to be among the craziest spaghetti models ever for a hurricane,” Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor of mathematics and computer science, posted to X, formerly Twitter, over a model by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Tammy, which is currently a Category 1 hurricane, has “maximum sustained winds [that] have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts.”

Spaghetti plots are a tangled cluster of all the potential paths that a storm could take, depending on the conditions it faces.

“Each spaghetti model represents the storm’s, in this case Tammy’s, path in a different weather model forecast,” Quinton Lawton told Newsweek. Lawton is a PhD researcher in atmospheric sciences at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami.

“What weather models do is take in a lot of current weather data from around the world—from satellites, weather instruments, aircraft observations—and make a ‘best guess’ at what the atmosphere looks like at a given time.

“Then it solves a set of physics equations to predict what will happen to the weather in the future, based on those current conditions. Each weather model is slightly different in how it makes this initial best guess and in the details of how it solves these equations, so spaghetti models help us compare what different models are predicting into a single image,” he said.

Some spaghetti plots are made using ensemble forecast systems, which involve a set of multiple weather forecasts being produced for each model.

“What typically happens is that the initial ‘best guess’ of what the atmosphere looks like is randomly, and very slightly, adjusted prior to running each ‘member’ of the set of forecasts. What this does is give us an idea of the uncertainty of the forecast,” Lawton explained.

“If those model plots stay close together even after this random adjustment, it gives us more certainty in the overall forecast. But when they are pretty spread apart, like now with Tammy, it indicates that there is more uncertainty in the forecast.”

A storm or hurricane such as Tammy can change direction due to a number of factors, which may lead it along one or another of the strands of a spaghetti plot.

Chris Slocum told Newsweek that the placement of middle latitude troughs is key to the direction a hurricane or tropical storm might take.

Slocum is a physical scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Satellite Applications and Research.

“Troughs basically act like a wall that tropical cyclones cannot cross and cause the tropical cyclone to recurve and start moving northwest. From the storm perspective, the storm’s thunderstorm organization, strength of the winds, and size of the storm impact where a storm will go. The strands highlight the impact of all these factors on where a storm might go,” he said.

Tammy’s unpredictability is in part due to how late in the hurricane season it is.

“Late in the north Atlantic hurricane season, tropical cyclones begin to interact with the lower-latitude extending troughs, which are associated with variable fall weather over the continental United States,” Slocum said.

“During the peak of the hurricane season, storms may dissipate over cold ocean water before interacting with a higher-latitude trough. In general, trough interaction makes tropical cyclone track more uncertain. Ensemble simulations capture differences in the timing and strength of the trough to provide multiple possibilities [of] how the storm will interact with the trough,” Slocum said.

“This makes Tammy’s track typical for a late season north Atlantic tropical cyclone interacting with a trough. The large variability gives forecasters at the National Hurricane Center an idea of uncertainty in the storm’s track, which they can use to monitor the interaction between Tammy and the trough via satellite imagery and to then convey uncertainty to the public,” he said.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Tammy is due to move west, hitting Bermuda by Thursday, but will begin to weaken in the coming days.

“Some additional strengthening is possible through early Wednesday, followed by weakening through late this week. Tammy is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone by Thursday,” a public advisory reads.

Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about Hurricane Tammy? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.

Fears of sewage-infested waters spread as California town pleas for help

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Fears of sewage-infested waters spread as California town pleas for help

California winter weather forecasts are causing concern for one Sacramento County city as officials fear a sewage spillover repeat.

Californians faced an onslaught of wet weather last winter when more than 12 atmospheric rivers dumped excessive rain on the state. The heavy precipitation erased much of the state’s drought and proved beneficial to the state’s wildfire threat, but it had some concerning impacts on wastewater treatment plants in Isleton, California, a small city in north-central California.

In March 2023, heavy rain overflowed the city’s wastewater ponds, causing 2 to 3 million gallons of wastewater to spill into the Mokelumne, San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers, WLWT reported at the time. The city’s pipes were damaged during the January storms, and heavy rainfall contributed to the overflow.

The waste had already gone through its first treatment, in which solids were removed, meaning it wasn’t raw sewage that flowed into the waterways.

“We do primary treatment; it’s not raw sewage going out there. But it’s still technically sewage water,” city manager Chuck Bergson said at the time.

The spillover had low impact on the waterways given that floods diluted the wastewater, but now Bergson is worried the city could see a repeat this winter.

“If the rains come, we could be back to the same situation we were in March,” Bergson said according to a CBS News report.

Bergson has repeatedly requested funds from the state to fix the treatment plant. A replacement plant is planned to begin construction in 2025, but a temporary solution is needed before then.

Newsweek reached out to Bergson by email for comment.

California Winter Weather Forecast

Winter weather forecasts anticipate that California will experience another wet winter, given that El Niño has arrived.

El Niño is one of two climate patterns that greatly impact Earth’s weather. La Niña recently culminated in the spring, ending a multiyear period in which the pattern influenced the weather. El Niño started in June, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent update has identified El Niño as having high odds of being historically strong.

That means parts of California could receive more rain, as El Niño generally leads to wetter conditions for parts of the state and the southern U.S. La Niña typically results in lower precipitation for California during the winter months, although that wasn’t the case last year.

More wet weather could aid California’s lakes and reservoirs after they suffered serious depletion during the multi-year drought, but excessive precipitation has its downfalls as well, especially given that the wastewater ponds are fuller than normal for this time of year, according to the CBS News report.

“Last year, we just got too much, and this year, we are in the same situation,” Bergson said of the rain.

Scientists say climate extremes of 2023 point to need to end fossil fuels

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Scientists say climate extremes of 2023 point to need to end fossil fuels

In a new climate change report, an international group of scientists say they are “shocked by the ferocity” of this year’s weather extremes and warn that the climate is entering “uncharted territory.”

With an eye toward the upcoming United Nations climate talks beginning late next month, the authors urged an end to subsidies for fossil fuels, which have nearly doubled amid global energy insecurity and disruptions to energy supplies.

“Fossil fuel subsidies effectively penalize renewable energy production at a time when expanding renewable capacity should be a top priority,” the report’s lead author William Ripple told Newsweek in an email exchange. Ripple, a distinguished professor at Oregon State University’s College of Forestry, linked government support for oil, gas and coal to many of this year’s climate extremes.

“Continued fossil fuel emissions increase the likelihood of catastrophic climate risks, including unprecedented floods, heat waves, and extreme storms,” he said.

The report details how many of those climate impacts reached new levels in 2023, including global temperatures, ocean warming and wildfires that all hit record highs. Of the 35 global vital signs the authors measured, 20 are now at record extremes.

The new report updates a 2020 article declaring a “climate emergency” which has since been cosigned by more than 15,000 scientists. In the new report, published Tuesday in the monthly journal BioSience, the authors said we are now seeing the manifestations of earlier predictions about climate change.

“Unfortunately, time is up,” they wrote, adding that we are now in “a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity.”

The report does not just serve as a warning of impending disaster, however. The scientists also encouraged action that can meet the scale of the challenge and reduce the severity of future climate impacts. “Big problems need big solutions,” they wrote.

Paying Polluters

One of the report’s top recommendations is to identify and eliminate the various government policies that support the production and use of fossil fuels.

There is a common misperception that it is only green energy sources that need subsidies to compete in the marketplace. However, the report points out the staggering number of subsidies also flowing to fossil fuels.

Governments around the world have used subsidies such as tax credits, loans and other favorable policies to dramatically increase clean energy supplies. The report noted that solar and wind energy grew by 17 percent globally between 2021 and 2022. But that is still dwarfed by fossil fuel consumption, which remains 15 times greater than green energy, and the subsidies for dirtier energy sources are in many cases far higher than those for cleaner ones.

“Fossil fuel subsidies take many forms in various countries,” Ripple said. Those include direct support for fossil fuel exploration and extraction, tax incentives for companies and consumer assistance that aims to buffer against high fuel prices. There are also indirect subsidies in the form of policies that mask the true environmental and public health costs associated with drilling, mining and burning fossil fuels.

In the Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021, nations agreed to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. However, the report noted, fossil subsidies roughly doubled from 2021 to 2022, growing by more than $1 trillion around the world, partly due to disruption to the global energy market caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Energy prices have been increasing due to geopolitical conflict, especially the war in Ukraine,” Ripple said. “Thus, subsidies have also increased to partly offset these price increases.”

The Glasgow Pact recognized the need to provide “targeted support to the poorest and most vulnerable” to guard against price shocks. However, an analysis this February by the International Energy Agency showed that many government measures were not well targeted and “artificially maintained fossil fuels’ competitiveness versus low-emissions alternatives.”

Ripple said this year’s climate talks, known as the Conference of Parties, or COP 28, should address those subsidies.

“We hope that COP 28 will result in action on fossil fuel subsidies, ideally, in the form of a global agreement to rapidly phase out these subsidies,” he said.

Ecological Overshoot

Ripple and his co-authors also argued for a collective shift in perspective on climate change. Rather than viewing climate as an isolated environmental issue, they wrote, we should view it as a systemic threat.

“We view climate change as a symptom of the broader issue of ecological overshoot,” Ripple said. Unsustainable consumption of resources, he said, also threatens biodiversity, fresh water supply and our food systems, while exacerbating social and economic injustice. He argued that climate solutions must ultimately address these other issues.

“As humanity continues to place immense strain on Earth systems, any climate-only remedies will simply reposition this strain,” he said.

Ripple said the report provides evidence that “catastrophic” climate change has arrived, but that does not mean that climate action is futile. The authors said it is vital to limit warming as much as possible.

“I have hope, but we need more action,” Ripple said, and he stressed that even small reductions in future warming could make a big difference to reduce the chances of extreme events.

“We view the present as an extraordinary time in history,” he said, “where we have an unprecedented opportunity to minimize suffering for future generations.”

States most at risk for painful breakbone fever

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States most at risk for painful breakbone fever

A Pasadena, California, resident was diagnosed with the first locally acquired case of dengue virus last week, and the news has reignited a warning from the World Health Organization (WHO) issued earlier this month.

Dengue virus, also known as breakbone fever or black bone fever for its severely painful symptoms, is spread through the bite of an infected female mosquito, usually the Aedes aegypti species. The virus is common in warmer climates where the mosquitos thrive, such as South America, but earlier this month WHO infectious disease specialist Jeremy Farrar warned that the virus could “take off” in the U.S. in this decade as climate change makes the environment more favorable to the mosquitos nationwide, according to a report by Reuters.

“We need to really prepare countries for how they will deal with the additional pressure that will come…in the future in many, many big cities,” Farrar said.

Farrar said the virus will most likely become endemic in parts of the U.S. and other global destinations that have already seen local transmissions.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the virus is mostly found in the Caribbean, Central and South America, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands, but cases have been diagnosed in the U.S., particularly in states with hot, humid climates.

States At Risk For Breakbone Fever

The CDC specified that most dengue cases in the U.S. thus far are attributed to traveling overseas, and the virus has been identified in Florida, Hawaii, Texas and Arizona.

However, those states and other warm regions like southern California could soon become more at risk for locally acquired dengue as the climate warms and becomes favorable to the Aedes aegypti mosquito.

“Recently this mosquito was introduced to many regions of California and has become established, so it was only a matter of time before local dengue transmission occurred,” Cornell University professor Laura Harrington told Newsweek. “Other states at high risk are Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Hawaii is also at risk and has had some local dengue transmission.”

Less than 1 percent of dengue virus cases are fatal, and only one in four people with dengue will have symptoms. More than 4 million cases of dengue virus were diagnosed worldwide in 2022. The most common symptoms are fever, nausea, vomiting, rash and aches and pains. The virus is known as breakbone fever given the severe pain that accompanies it in some cases.

Despite the case in Pasadena, officials are reassuring residents that the virus is not endemic to the area and that risk remains low.

“Local dengue infections on the US mainland are very rare,” a report by Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) said. “People who contract the virus in locations where the virus is endemic can introduce the virus to local mosquito populations.”

CIDRAP added that Florida is the only U.S. state that regularly reports local cases of the virus.

“So far this year, Florida has reported 68 cases, most of them in Miami-Dade County,” the CIDRAP report said.

Newsweek reached out to State University of New York at Buffalo professor Jared Aldstadt and Rutgers University professor Dina Fonseca by email for comment.

Malaria, another virus spread by mosquitos also rare in the U.S., has also been diagnosed in the states this year, including in Maryland, Arkansas, Florida and Texas. To combat mosquito-spread diseases, Americans are urged to reduce mosquito-breeding sites, such as stagnant water, from around their homes.

Update 10/24/2023, 2:57 p.m. ET: This article was updated to include comment from Laura Harrington.

Rare storm to drop 10 times yearly rain overnight

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Rare storm to drop 10 times yearly rain overnight

Cyclone Tej is ravaging Yemen and could drop 20 inches of rain on the desert nation overnight—10 times the area’s annual average rainfall.

The cyclone made landfall Tuesday morning and has already reportedly dropped 15 inches of rain at the Al-Ghaydah airport in Yemen’s Al-Mahra province. The storm has lost some of its strength as it moves inland, but rain continues to fall across much of Yemen’s coast.

Storm chaser Colin McCarthy posted on X, formerly Twitter, that 20 to 30 inches of rain were forecasted for Al Ghaydah in only 24 hours.

“Some forecast models predict that 20-30 inches of rain could fall in the next 24 hours near Al Ghaydah, Yemen, as Tropical Cyclone Tej stalls over the region. Al Ghaydah receives ~2 inches of rain per year, which means over 10 year’s worth of rain could fall in just 24 hours, leading to catastrophic flooding,” McCarthy wrote on Monday.

It is uncommon for severe cyclones to form over the Arabian Sea, which is on India’s western coast, the scientific journal Nature reported in 2021. The storms are more likely to form in the warmer ocean waters in the Bay of Bengal on India’s eastern coast, where Cyclone Hamoon currently rages, but the number of severe cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea has been increasing steadily since 1995.

Increased surface temperatures of the Arabian Sea caused by climate change could spark more severe cyclones, according to the study.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls said cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea are not unheard of, but it is unusual for a storm to track near Yemen.

“They seem to get a landfall every five years or so,” Nicholls told Newsweek, adding that the most recent cyclone landfall near Yemen was in 2018. “What’s helping it this year is more of the warm water, and conditions are right for development on the Arabian Sea side this year.”

Nicholls said that precipitation estimates could be inaccurate, as the dry Yemen weather can cause the storms to “rapidly dissipate.”

Videos and images of the flooding have been shared on social media. Weather Channel senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman shared an image on X that revealed the flooding severity.

“As feared, staggering rainfall totals have come out of eastern Yemen and western Oman from Cyclone #Tej. Per Yemen Met Services, 406 mm (15.98 inches) of rain has fallen at Al-Ghaydah Airport as of 9am Tuesday, ~8 times *annual* average, there,” Erdman posted, citing Yemen Meteorological Services.

The slow-moving system was expected to stall over Yemen, contributing to the rainfall totals. Cyclones are ranked on a scale of five levels, ranging from a Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds of 63 to 88 kilometers per hour (39 to 54 miles per hour) to a Super Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds greater than 221 km/h (137 mph).

Prior to landfall, Cyclone Tej was ranked as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, and its windspeeds increased upon its approach to 125 mph. While nearing Yemen, windspeeds died down to 80 mph just before landfall and are now measured at 40 mph as the storm works its way inland.

A typhoon is classified as a severe tropical cyclone occurring in the Northwest Pacific. A hurricane is the term for the same type of storm in the Northeast Pacific and Northern Atlantic. Outside of these regions, the storms are called tropical cyclones.

Shocked scientists conclude that life on Earth is "under siege"

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Shocked scientists conclude that life on Earth is "under siege"

Shocked experts have concluded in a new report that, after a year of extreme weather events, life on Earth is “under siege.”

The report, cosigned by more than 15,000 scientists, serves as an update to the 2019 World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency report, which classed climate change as an “emergency,” saying it would lead to “untold human suffering.”

In the new report, scientists state they are “shocked by the ferocity” of the extreme weather events seen so far in 2023. In the United States, these have included extremely heavy rainfall and atmospheric rivers that battered the west of the nation, causing severe flooding. At least 22 people died and approximately $3.5 billion of damage was caused. Scientists note that climate change may be making such severe floods more common.

The study also notes the devastating wildfires that swept through Hawaii earlier this year, noting that on Maui island more than 100 people lost their lives, although the death toll from the wildfires was revised down to 97 from 115 by authorities in September. Maui Police Chief John Pelletier added during a press briefing that the number of those who remain unaccounted for was 31, down from 66.

Nevertheless, the report says that as climate change has made rain less common, and led to increased temperatures in the region, wildfires may be becoming more common.

“To address climate change, rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions must be a top priority. We therefore urge world leaders to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and support coal elimination and fossil fuel non-proliferation treaties,” William Ripple, a professor at Oregon State University College of Forestry, and one of the authors of the report, told Newsweek.

“In addition, we need policies to protect and restore forests, which sequester carbon. Lastly, given the catastrophic climate impacts we are now seeing, funding for equitable climate adaptations is needed to protect infrastructure and minimize loss of life,” he said.

The authors of the report suggest that an average global surface temperature recorded in July may have been the highest seen on Earth in 100,000 years.

Of 35 “vital signs” of climate change effects, the report notes that 20 are now “record extremes” and this has been “tragically reflected” in the amount of human suffering across the world, the scientists write.

One major concern listed in the report are fossil fuel subsidies, which doubled to over $1 trillion between 2021 and 2022.

Wildfires in Canada—which were particularly bad this year, with smoke blanketing areas of the East Coast—also pumped 1 gigaton of carbon into the atmosphere.

Climate change is causing some serious concerns regarding resources and food security, the report says. In 2022, 735 million people faced chronic hunger. This marks an increase of 122 million since 2019.

“Since the publication of our first climate report in 2019, we have seen many important planetary vital signs like carbon dioxide levels continue to worsen,” Ripple said. “We have been particularly troubled by the severity of recent climate-related disasters, including massive floods, heat waves, and storms. We are concerned that policymakers are failing to adequately address the climate emergency. We are also acquiring a greater understanding of dangerous climate feedback loops, potential tipping points that may make the climate crisis much worse.”

This most recent report is just the latest in a series that are emerging about the effects of climate change.

A study published earlier in October warned that if climate change continues to worsen, certain areas—such as Middle America—could soon be too hot for humans to live in.

The section of the United States from Florida to New York and Houston to Chicago could get so hot that humans would not be able to withstand the heat if the planet continues to warm past 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the study.

Various other reports have also tracked how extreme weather events are increasing because of climate change.

Another recent study found that hurricanes in the Atlantic are intensifying faster than ever before. Its author said her findings should serve as an “urgent warning” to people to change their behavior, as a warming ocean surface may be contributing to these strong hurricanes.

“There are lots of small-scale actions people can take to help mitigate climate change, such as using more energy efficient appliances, opting for more sustainable diet choices, and making use of public transportation, if possible,” Ripple said. “Since this is a systemic, global crisis, we think a top priority for individuals should be voting for, supporting, and holding accountable leaders who are committed to addressing climate change.”

Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about climate change? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.

"Winter is coming" for US Northwest as forecasters predict heavy snow

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"Winter is coming" for US Northwest as forecasters predict heavy snow

A late October storm is expected to bring “heavy” snowfall to parts of the American Northwest this week, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

“‘Winter Is Coming,'” the NWS Weather Prediction Center warned of the storm on X, formerly Twitter, in an apparent reference to the popular motto from author George R.R. Martin’s fantasy series Game of Thrones. The storm is expected to bring snowy and icy conditions to parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rocky Mountains and the Northern Plains through Friday.

The storm began impacting the Pacific Northwest on Monday and started shifting Tuesday toward the Northern Rockies. Between Tuesday night and early Friday, “multiple waves of heavy snow” are expected to fall in parts of Montana and North Dakota, with many areas forecast to receive at least 8 inches of snow, according to a Tuesday afternoon NWS forecast. There is a “low chance,” which the NWS rated as 10 to 30 percent, that some spots could record as much as 18 inches of snow.

“This significant multi-day event will likely cause difficult travel conditions across the region,” forecasters said in a national NWS bulletin.

The Great Falls, Montana, area is expected to get between 8 and 12 inches of snow this week, one NWS Great Falls forecaster told Newsweek. This is the area’s first snowstorm of the season. The bulk of the snow is expected to fall between Tuesday night and Wednesday, after which, weather experts expect, there will be a brief break before snow begins falling again on Thursday.

Snow has fallen a handful of times in mid- or late-October over the last several years in the Great Falls area, though the local forecaster said there has been more autumn snow recently. Last year at about this time, the area reported about 4.2 inches of snow. Looking ahead to the winter season, January tends to be a drier month for Montana, with heavier snowfall often returning in February.

NWS Great Falls warned residents in multiple posts on X to be aware of their surroundings and keep their eyes out for icy road conditions and low visibility, both of which present risks for commuters.

In Billings, Montana, the local NWS office shared a photo on X showing snow already falling on a local highway. The temperatures in the area Tuesday afternoon were hovering at around 13 degrees Fahrenheit, the post said. Further east, the NWS office in Bismarck, North Dakota, warned on X that northwestern parts of the state could see “at least” 8 inches of snowfall between Tuesday night and Thursday night.

Before-and-after photos show lake disappear

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Before-and-after photos show lake disappear

Before-and-after photos published over the weekend reveal the severity of a drought plaguing the Amazon that has depleted several lakes and rivers.

Several bodies of water in the Amazon are suffering from low water levels as El Niño grips the region. The climate phenomenon is known for causing warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean west of South America, but the impacts have been exacerbated by climate change—resulting in low water levels that have devastating impacts. The drought has stranded some of the Amazon’s river communities, leaving people without access to desperately needed supplies. The drought also has proven fatal, with several marine species dying from its impacts.

On Saturday, a researcher shared four satellite photos that showed the steep decline in water levels at Lake Tefé. The pictures were taken on September 5, September 13, September 22 and October 18.

“40 days of the extreme drought in Lake Tefé, Central Amazon,” Ayan Fleischmann posted on X, formerly Twitter. Fleischmann is a researcher at the Mamirauá Institute for Sustainable Development.

Newsweek reached out to Fleischmann by email for comment.

In the first photo, Lake Tefé can be seen full of blue water. The water level has fallen substantially over a 40-day period, and the last photo shows a nearly dry lakebed.

The low water levels are causing fatal impacts, as 153 river dolphins—or 10 percent of the lake’s population—died over a week after Lake Tefé’s water temperatures soared to 102.38 Fahrenheit during the last week of September. The dolphins were found dead by the dozens, with 130 pink dolphins and 23 tucuxi dolphins affected. Usually, the lake’s water temperature is around 89.6 degrees F, but the intense drought has spiked temperatures.

Hundreds of fish were also killed in the Rio Negro due to low water levels and high temperatures. The fish were contaminating the water source and also signaled that more ominous impacts would take place if the drought continued. Wildfires have gripped the region as well, worsening the air quality.

Brazil has dedicated a task force to some of the most affected communities, in which the task force will bring fresh water, food, medicine and other supplies to the region. The task force will also dredge the river to encourage water flow to allow for the transportation of supplies as the levels continue to fall.

El Niño is known to bring higher-than-average precipitation to the southern portion of the United States, but it has the opposite effect for Brazil.

“For northern Brazil where the river is, El Niño tends to lead to drier, warmer than normal conditions going through their spring and into their summer,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls previously told Newsweek.

Nicholls added that relief is not likely for the region until March or April, when cooler weather arrives in the area and when El Niño starts to weaken.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting could submerge Florida

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West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting could submerge Florida

Scientists recently revealed a grim outlook for sea levels that could submerge Florida, parts of Louisiana and other coastal communities in the coming centuries.

Global warming and climate change are marked by ominous signs such as the heightened intensity of natural disasters or the concerning rate of rising sea levels. The levels continue to rise as glaciers and ice shelves melt as global temperatures increase, and a new study published in the Nature Climate Change scientific journal anticipates that there may be nothing that can be done to prevent further damage to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the collapse of which could add up to 17 feet to sea levels.

The study comes just a few months after a separate report found that Antarctica’s sea ice level appears to have reached its lowest point in history, likely due to climate change.

That big of an impact to sea levels has dire consequences. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sea level maps indicate that even an additional 10 feet in sea levels would eat away at America’s boundaries by submerging parts of Washington state, Oregon, California, the southeastern coast of Texas, much of the southern half of Louisiana and nearly the entire state of Florida. Rising sea levels also would consume a narrow band along the East Coast, including New York, Boston and Washington, D.C.

Newsweek on Monday reached out to WFLA Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Jeff Berardelli via email for comment on the potential impact to Florida.

The journal’s study examined various climate change models and their impacts on the ice melt while considering the uncertain climate factors that could come into play for the ice sheet’s melting. It revealed that even if global leaders took the most drastic of actions to counteract climate change, there would not be a substantial difference in the state of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next several decades, NBC News reported.

However, unanswered questions still abound, such as how much global emissions to date will continue to impact ice melt in the future and when the worst of the melt is expected.

There is, however, one thing that’s clear from the study.

“It appears we may have lost control of the west Antarctic ice shelf melting over the 21st century,” lead study author Kaitlin Naughten said in the NBC News report. “West Antarctic ice shelf melting is one impact of climate change that we’re probably just going to have to adapt to, and that very likely means some amount of sea level rise we cannot avoid. Coastal communities will either have to build around or be abandoned.”

Experts have long been aware of rising sea levels, but Newsweek previously reported that scientists have underestimated how much sea levels are rising by as much as 8 percent.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that sea levels could rise as much as 3.3 feet in the coming years, but polar scientist David Schneider doubts that number and said it is more realistic to double it.

“I would personally double any number IPCC has. They’re fairly conservative,” Schneider told NBC News. “I’d put an upper bound of 2 meters, at least, with a lot of uncertainty.”

If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses, it could exacerbate rising sea levels by more than double what Schneider anticipated, according to the new study.

Antarctic ice shelves have already taken a devastating hit, with as many as 40 percent having experienced ice loss over the past 25 years, according to a report by The Washington Post, which found that nearly all shelves on Antarctic’s western side have experienced ice melt.

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